![]() Seismologist Lucy Jones, who did not play a role in the report released Monday, called the study "elegant science" but added that its conclusions are not confirmed. The Ridgecrest quakes could trigger a large quake on the Garlock fault, and that could trigger a quake on the San Andreas. The new odds mean a large quake on the Garlock fault is now calculated to be 100 times more likely-rising from 0.023% in the next year to 2.3%.Īnd the chance of a large quake on the San Andreas has roughly tripled, from 0.35% in the next year to 1.15%, said Ross Stein, a co-author of the study and the CEO of Temblor, a catastrophe modeling company in the Bay Area that has built a free earthquake hazards app for smartphones. ![]() But they're a substantial jump from what the chances were before last year's Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes, whose epicenters were about 125 miles northeast of downtown L.A. That increased likelihood, in turn, would cause there to be a 1.15% chance of a large earthquake on the San Andreas fault in the next year. Material provided by Jules L Bernstein, University of California.The study, published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America on Monday, says there is now a 2.3% chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 12 months on a section of the 160-mile-long Garlock fault, which runs along the northern edge of the Mojave Desert. Everything depends on the geology and orientation of neighboring faults. In some cases, an earthquake could even relax stress on a nearby fault. Long-distance stress transfer is an active area of study for us. However, there is no magic distance at which triggering ceases. The question is, did the stress transfer to our faults? Most likely no, it probably did not trigger us. Is there any possibility of the Turkish earthquake setting off faults on another continent?Ī: The Turkish earthquake was easily detected by seismometers here. Q: Studies indicate that earthquakes can send out waves that trigger other earthquakes far from the original epicenter. People need to take precautions and be prepared. It's not a matter of if, but when a quake of roughly this size hits Southern California. People nearest the fault, including those in the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley would fare worst. They estimated more than 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and $200 billion in damage. Geological Survey led a study to predict the fallout from an earthquake of this size in Southern California. Downtown Los Angeles is built on a basin filled with soft sediment that would act like a bowl full of jello in a big earthquake. That isn't to say some buildings won't collapse.Ī 7.8 magnitude event here will still be devastating. ![]() For many people here, a bigger danger is stuff falling. Building collapse isn't as big a danger in California as it is in Turkey. Most of our buildings, particularly certain critical ones, are designed to withstand significant shaking. How is our state likely to fare following a similar event?Ī: I am not an engineer, but I believe our structures may fare better than the ones in Sunday's event did. USGS Q: By current counts, more than 5,600 buildings in Turkey were flattened. The San Andreas fault system and other large faults in California.
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